Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Analysis of Competing Hypothesis is usually shortened to ACH, as described by Heuer (1999) is An unbiased tool used to analyze several suppositions before choosing a befitting judgment (p. 95).

Its application in the real world is not decisive as it is surrounded by some advantages as well as disadvantages.

Advantages
Since it uses a matrix method it is easy to asses the outcome thus avoiding cognitive biases. The matrix allows the assessors to retrace the theories of facts that led to the hypothesis. The scrutinizing of facts by applying all possible hypotheses avoids preconception. By categorizing the facts an investigator is able to do away with less important facts hence economize on thought (Heuer, 1999). It also helps an analyst to make out possible future occurrences from the evidence collected.

Disadvantages
It is cumbersome especially when one is dealing with a huge amount of data.
As Heuer (1999) puts it, the theory does not give a conclusive answer on the specific time of the possible future occurrences. If data used in the matrix is unreliable it also proves to be a problem since it uses fixed data.

Measures to prevent cognitive bias
Human nature is inclined to making conclusions based on thought rather than facts. A way of combating this is by use of the Bayesian inference (Heuer, 1999). A scientific method of gathering data intended to be reliable or unreliable as per a given hypothesis. Automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses can also help avert cognitive bias. Automation helps leave visual data that investigators can use to make inferences, by rating the reliability and significance of the data.

0 comments:

Post a Comment