What is Hypothesis

Hypothesis  This is the assumption or a guess predicted by scientists to a problem that can be proven further.

Can you think of any reasons of why this would be a problem
Most people use their own intuitions and understanding the problem clearly is needed. Most people understand and think differently thus the level of thinking they make matters, and if the level is low there will be a problem with the assumptions made.
Another problem is the use of scientific tools and methods to arrive at the assumptions made. The methods are cumbersome and consume a lot of time. They should be easy to understand to anyone who reads the assumptions. The judgment and selection methods used to arrive at the conclusions also vary and thus they should not declare their hypothesis as the only and accurate method to be used by people.
They should not declare their hypothesis as accurate because the level of certainty of the hypothesis made may vary from one person to another and some may even jump at conclusions without reasoning.

What does diagnosticity of evidence mean in this context Please give some examples
Diagnosticity of evidence means the importance of the evidence when drawing conclusions. Example is the patients - doctors case where a high temperature reading may help the doctor in telling a patient is sick but not help in diagnosing the ailments. Thus has a non-diagnostic value. Another example is the increased frequency of Iraqi radio broadcasts if they are planning to retaliate to US bombings.

How do we evaluate if a piece of evidence is of diagnostic or non-diagnostic value
A piece of evidence is evaluated using the level of consistency with other hypothesis. If the evidence is consistent with the other entire hypothesis then it is of non-diagnostic value.  Highly diagnostic evidence leads you to your judgment. They should be check over and other alternatives should be made.

5. Would you agree that using a numerical probability when analyzing the matrix is a good approach Why
No, using number is rough ranking and uses few factors which do not represent the real meaning especially if used for making decision by parties with large mass of information .some decisions are important and cannot be represented by numbers only. It is difficult to judge between the evidence and the hypothesis. Thus numerical probability is never certain and thus not a good approach.
How effective do you think this approach is in relation to your final decision making Can you think of any other ways to evaluate the evidence and hypotheses

The approach is not effective when making decisions but it gives a rough idea of what to expect and helps you to think, analyze and make judgment. It takes a lot of time thinking and in tackling all the possibilities.

Why shorthand record of your thinking important In what situations would a criminologist need to present his thinking in this kind of record

Shorthand record of thinking is important as it represents a simple reasoning about a complex situation. A criminologist would use this record when determining the methods a criminal would use to escape in jail and would exhaust all the means.

8. What do you think are some advantages of using the ACH procedure of Analysis
One advantage of the ACH procedure is that one can go back to check at the original source document. This can be checked over and over for accuracy. The ACH procedure leads the analyst to identify and face questions about the evidence given. it may be an accurate reflection of the true situation .A lot of practice in applying analysis of competing leads to integration of the   basic concepts especially in highly controversial issues thus,  no need to apply the basic eight steps. It also helps to resolve uncertainty and produce a more accurate judgment.

9. Disadvantages of using the ACH procedure of Analysis
It is not guaranteed that the answers are correct. If the information is incomplete and ambiguous the results would not be reliable.  The ACH procedure   focuses attention on the few items of critical evidence that cause the uncertainty.


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