Af-Pak TerrorInsurgency A Synthesis
In 2008, the insurgency started to gain considerable momentum with rise in casualties on both sides. The presence of foreign force and a poorly performing regime provide legitimacy and support to insurgents. The international forces had carried out major offensives in high activity areas. However, due to multitude factors could not achieve favorable results. The fight for Afghanistan is going to stay on for times to come. The United States pullout is inevitable at some stage. The exit strategy would define the future course of global and regional politics.
The case of Pakistan is a somewhat different from its neighbor. International community in general and United States, Saudi Arabia in particular supported the fundamental religious elements in Pakistan to provide logistic support inside Afghanistan during resistance. With the fall of Stalins Soviet Union, United States pulled out of all its support. Once tamed fundamental religious elements were now grown to formidable force and started gaining grounds. The initial onset was rise of sectarian violence in Pakistan and covert support for armed struggle in Indian occupied Kashmir. Post 911 events re-defined the paradigm of international politics and forced Pakistan to change its policy on core issues of sponsoring fundamentalist items. The Islamist joined hand with in them and started to engage the state. The takeover of Swat valley by militants in 2008 and implementation of theocratic Islam directly challenged the writ of the state. Similar sort of insurgency blossomed in remote tribal belt adjacent to Afghan border. Terror was use extensively as a tactic to pressurize the state. As an initial response, the government was probably bewildered. However, lately in 2008, the state decided to take on the fundamental elements. The Military operations in Swat and South Waziristan have achieved significant success. These successes can be futile if not capitalized and consolidated.
AF-PAK TERRORINSURGENCY A SYNTHESIS
Introduction
The case of Afghanistan is eclipse with power struggle after the fall of Russian Red Bear. Since invasion of United States, chaos grew further and an insurgency led by ousted Taliban started to gain momentum. The surge in insurgency gained considerable momentum post-2008 as per Thomas Rutting. NATO and United States launched major offensives in preceding years in Taliban strongholds to cut down their influence. However, the insurgency is gaining momentum. The Afghan turmoil could be analyzed in context of classic guerilla warfare with a blend of emerging terror tactics. Pakistans case is different from its neighboring Afghanistan. Since its covert support in Afghan-Russo War, Pakistan had been facing law and order situation in decade of 1980 and 90. The political turmoil in these decades further aided the rise of religious and fanatical group. The case of terrorism of Afghanistan and Pakistan has some common links but differ from each other.
Afghanistan- Medieval Country of 21st Century
The Al-Qaeda Connection
Al-Qaeda came into lime light in 1998 with its alleged connection with bombing of United States Embassy. 1989, brought Bin Laden into picture as heir of Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden gave an impetus to organization and new strategy. The key focus from re-conquistador of Islamic world changed to fight against corrupt Muslim leaders. In 1996 to avoid the increasing risk of apprehension in Sudan, he shifted to Afghanistan. With the fall of Kabul, he developed ties with the power gaining Talibans. In 1998, Bin Laden was chosen as Amir of Al-Qaeda by Mujlis-E-Shura. In the same year, United States was declare as enemy of Muslims and called all Muslims to kill Americans and plunder their money. Finally, on September 11, 2001 the fall of World Trade Centre by Kamikaze Al-Qaeda operatives gave a huge symbolic blow to its Enemy. The shift in strategy pitched Al-Qaeda as a common enemy of International Community. The United State invaded Afghanistan in wake of 911 attacks.
Taliban Resurgence (2001-2007)
Since the ousting of Taliban regime in 2001-02, the group started its re-organization and opted for classical guerilla tactics with a blend of terror. The insurgency started in 2002 and grew to full blown insurgency in 2006. The increase in violence reached its peak in 2005-06. The number of suicide attacks rose from 27 to 139. While remotely detonated bomb attacks doubled, 783 to 1677 and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1558 to 4542. These attacks further rose to a 27 percent increase in 2007. The average per month incident had increased from 50 in 2002 to 566 in 2007. The terror attacks rose from 491 in 2005 to 1127 in 2007. The number of deaths, injuries and abductions increased from 1540 in 2005 to 4673 in 2007.
Post 2008 Afghanistan
The insurgent attacks rose from 424 in 1st quarter of 2007 to 704 in same quarter of 2008. The number of suicide bombings was 160 in 2007 and 100 in first six months of 2008. While in 2009, the roadside attacks rose from 4170 in 2008 to 7000. The United States Military causality count doubled to 310 from previous years. Insurgent area of influence and operation rose to almost 92 in 2008-09. Although NATO, United States and local Afghan forces had launched many offensive to cut down the insurgent influence, without any substantial gain. The increasing military presence of United States and NATO had yet to achieve an impact on insurgent activities.
Tactics of Afghan Insurgency
After the fall of Taliban regime in Kabul, the ousted regime had a major shift in tactics. The tactics are derivation from the classical Hit and Run with blend of terror activities. The small-scale military ambushes and skirmishes are a regular part of these tactics while suicide bombings, roadside bombs, abductions and killing are associated psychological methods. The rugged familiar terrain of Afghanistan is a major advantage to insurgent groups. The clandestine approach and mixing up with local population adds further to the difficulty of counter insurgent operations. Even with significant military presence and technological edge of adversaries, the insurgents are gaining grounds. The legitimacy to movement is provided by the liberation slogans and Islamic concept of Jihad.
Governance failure of Karzai government had added positively to the rise of insurgent activities. The presence of powerful local warlords and poor control of central government also adds as a positive factor.
Searching the roots for Afghan insurgency
The search for roots of Afghan insurgency dates back to almost quarter of century. The Russian invasion and its withdrawal left the country in power struggle among the rival factions. The rise of Taliban kept a lid on these embroiling issues for a short duration until their overthrow by United States. The formation of Karzai government and rise of northern alliance to power manifested an ethnic discrimination for the Pashtun tribes. Poor governance, soviet war veterans, gun culture, tribal society and religion were the ripe constituents to enflame an insurgency.
Before proceeding further, it felt imperative to understand the point of view of Afghan insurgents. As core of present Afghan insurgency is led by Taliban, so it is deem appropriate to understand their point. Since withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, fierce power struggle broke out among the Afghan Warlords. The fighting within them completely eradicated the concepts of governance and peace in country. The Talibans were student of religious madarssahs. They had a general disliking for the ongoing power feud. They gained the shape of a popular struggle with increasing influence in Pashtun tribes. They rose to power in 1996 with fall of Kabul, their regime lasted only for 5 years but brought security and peace to many parts of country. Being a radical Islamic movement they were inspired by rigid Salafist ideology. According to the subject ideology the use of modern concepts and equipments were considered as a taboo. During their whole effort of power and regime, they were supported by Pakistan and may be under cover by United States. As fallout of 911, they were deprived of international and regional backing. As per the statements of Taliban leader, Mullah Omer their primary demand is exit of foreign troops from Afghanistan. The apparent goals of Taliban leadership are exit of foreign troops and re-instatement of Taliban regime in Kabul. The use of terror tactic of suicide bombing has always remained a matter of debate among Taliban leaders.
Taking into account the statements issued by Taliban it seems that their goal is mainly local confined to perimeter of Afghanistan. According to un-confirmed sources, Taliban leadership has division with in among the use of terror tactics. If this context is true then the nature of Afghan insurgency is mostly local and may not have global aims. However, what is the role of Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden and their influence on Taliban According to United States security advisor James Jones, the Maximum estimates of Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan are 100 with no bases. Such depletion of Al-Qaeda human resource must had a devastating blow to their objectives in region. Al-Qaeda may not have an active participation in Afghan Insurgency but its aims and objective for a global radical Islam is source of concern for the International community. Bin Laden was major financial mentor of Taliban regime in Afghanistan but now the situation is other way around. The major chunk of insurgency funding is acquire from narcotics and other means like abductions, extortion etc.
Although the objective and nature of Afghan insurgency is mainly local against the foreign occupation but the Al-Qaeda connection can prove fatal for the rest of the world. Afghanistans safe sanctuaries can aid in the flourishing of Radical Islamist movement. Under the precarious conditions the insurgency had to be handled very wisely otherwise, it could have dire consequence for the whole planet.
Pakistan A Victim or Sponsor of Terrorism
Before proceeding further, it is deem appropriate to glance at issues faced by Pakistan with regard to Jihadi terrorism.
The Story of violence in Pakistan
The Jihadi terrorism in Pakistan has its connection with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The whole programme of Afghan resistance was funded by United States and Saudi Arabia with sympathies of General Zias regime. Government funded religious schools to produce volunteers for Afghan war. The war was given a term of Jihad (Islamic Terminology for armed struggle against oppressor). The withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan raised the question of legitimacy of Jihadi organizations. However, their efforts were channeled to Kashmir under covert support from government. The decade of 1990 is overshadowing with the violent sectarian struggle among factions in different parts of Northern Province and Southern Punjab.
The Afghan Connection and Taliban
The religious concept of Jihad was exploited on political terms to gain recruitment and support for Afghan resistance. United States, CIA and Saudi Arabia opened the floodgates of monetary and military assistance to Jihadi elements in decade of 1980. After the fall of Russian Red bear, the Jihadi elements left unchecked by International community as well as by the Pakistani government. These elements kept on gaining grounds with the passage of time. After the fall of Taliban regime and United States invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistani government was force to take a U-turn on its backing of Taliban regime. The government cracked down many Jihadi elements and banned a large number of active organizations. However, these elements were now evolving to very complex web with social, economic and political effects on society. These factions have strongholds in different areas of country like Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), and Southern Punjab.
The tale of Blood in Pakistan (2002-2009)
911 attacks changed the face of world politics and forced many nations like Pakistan to change it pro-Taliban stance. Pakistan has to pay a hefty price for changing lanes. Since it alliance with United States War on Terror, the terror waves started to erupt from 2002 onward. In only 2003, the civilian casualties amounted to 140 and security forces lost 24 members while the reported terrorist lost was 24. The number grew exponentially in preceding years, the civilian death toll reached 1523 in 2007 and 2155 in 2008. Year 2009 marked the bloodiest year with civilian toll of 2307 and 1011 security forces losses. The terrorist losses also reached 8267 from 3906 in 2008.
The Swat Situation and awakening in 2009
Swat was one of the peaceful districts of North West Frontier Province of Pakistan before 2009. The people of Swat had a long request of implementation of Sharia Law in district. The demand rose first in decade of 1990 but it gained momentum in late 2008. In early 2009, government brokered a deal with cleric Sufi Mohammad for implementation of the requested Nizam-E-Adl. Just after two month of peace deal, the cleric denounced the deal with accusation on government insincerity for implementation of Nizam-E-Adl. The cleric joined hands with so-called Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and took over Swat in February 2009. The militants extended their influence to neighboring Bunir and Shangla districts. Once acquiring complete control, they imposed their own theocratic version of Islam. People who did not support their rule were executed publicly to make them an example for potential resistance. Public lashings introduced. Female schools burned to ashes.
Barbershops and CD shops were blown. The atrocities reached a massive scale with inclusion of suicide bombing all over country. It was first time that writ of state was openly challenged in settled areas. To weed out these fanatic elements, which were just 100 miles away from Islamabad, government launched a full-scale military offensive in May,2009 code named Operation Rah-e-Rast (Path to right). The military swiftly dismantled the militant stronghold in just 60 days. Before the operation, civilian population was move to avoid collateral damage. Military washed out the majority of militants during the operation. However, for complete eradication of fundamental elements military presence has been kept in the district until now to weed out the small pockets of resistance.
Path to Salvation-Destination Waziristan
Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) emerged on map in 1893 after the demarcation of Durand line by British colonials. The colonials loosely controlled the tribal area. Instead of implementing the administration model of rest of country, this area was divided into different agencies (administrative zones). A political agent who had paramilitary support from Frontier Constabulary headed each agency. The government writ was loosely existed in these areas since colonial age. The same model was continued post-independence. Different tribes and clans are settle in different areas and indirectly control these areas. Due to its location, the area became pivotal in Afghan resistance against the Soviet Union. It was establish as base camp for operations inside Afghanistan. The foreign volunteers like Arabs, Uzbeks and other resided in this part during lenient period of fight. Most of them settled here permanently and contracted marriages with local woman. In post 911 scenario, the area came into limelight due to porosity of Afghan border and cross border incursions. The Afghan fighters had sympathizers in this area and had socio-economic links. After the outbreak of another war in Afghanistan, these sympathizers, which existed in small groups, formed a formidable alliance known as Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in December 2007.
Baitullan Mehsud, a wanted militant from South Waziristan was the first chieftain of organization. The main aim of TTP was to enforce Sharia and Unite against NATO forces in Afghanistan. They killed around 200 tribesmen on charges of spying to American and Pakistani Government. They also established their theocratic version of Islam in their areas of influence. Their version was same as that of their counterparts in Swat. It is an estimate that Mehsud had 5000 fighters under his command. He was also alleged in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party. He denied these allegations. He has said to be the mastermind of terror wave that erupted in 2008-09. The terror wave included tactics like suicide bombing all over the country, commando style action in Army Headquarters and other security forces installations, attacks on Marriot hotel and many more. He was killed in United States drone attack.
After the successful culmination of Swat operation, Pakistani Military chose South Waziristan, the stronghold of Mehsuds men as their next target. The operation code named Rah-e-Nijat (Path to salvation) began on 19 June 2009. A major ground offensive subsequently started in October 2009. The army blockaded all roads to South Waziristan before the start of operation and launched offensive from three sides. The army with support from air force is advancing in the region. Fighting in some agencies is still going on but the military offensive has broken the back of militants. The operation is still going on and militants have resorted to guerilla tactics of hit and run. Ambushes on army convoys, abductions of security forces personnel, roadside bombs and suicide attacks are tactics employed by the miscreants. In order to increase public pressure on government, militants have targeted the major cities of Pakistan with waves of suicide bombings. However, these tactics proved futile in venting the military pressure.
Synopsis
Afghanistan had been termed as graveyard of empires by many scholars due to its harsh terrain and rugged peoples. The roots of recent problem existed from the withdrawal of Soviets when international community particularly United States and Pakistan left alone the once cheered Mujahedeens.
Rebuilding Afghanistan
Terrorism has evolved as a tool for the insurgent elements as little investment pays off a high gain. While studying the Afghan and Pakistan insurgency in light of classical insurgency theories, it is clear that Afghan insurgents have a clear agenda of getting rid of foreign occupation. The insurgents went underground after United States invasion and reconciled their strength. While progressively, they escalated the activities and shifted to limited scale guerilla tactics. The next phase would probably be the transition to full-scale war. Nevertheless, as it has been proven by Soviet example that prolonged guerilla warfare can result in loss of political will to carry on the war. We have to wait and see for this aspect. Moreover, the present political government of Hamid Karzai is not the true representative of Afghanistan. The Pashtuns feel deprived and isolated from the government. This ethnic disparity gives insurgents a base and populace support to operate. The corruption and poor governance of present government also gave Afghan people an ill impression. The claim of Taliban insurgents on basis of their five-year relatively peaceful regime also gets legitimacy. Moreover, insurgents are also capitalizing the religious grounds of infidel occupation. The West in general and United States in particular have been posed as infidels ruling the faithful. The collateral damage from NATO strikes is adding further fuel to the insurgency. Therefore, the solution of Afghan insurgency might exist in an Afghan government including all stakeholders and stage wise exit of foreign forces. However, if Afghanistan is left alone like before the problem may evoke again and could pose a major global threat. The nexus of Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda needs to be delinked to avoid future perpetrations against global community.
Pakistan- a case of misunderstood Identity
In case of Pakistan, the slogan is implementation of Islamic laws and governance style. It is pertinent to note that Pakistan gained independence on the name of Islam. While defining the Islamic rule, both extremists and moderates differ from each other. The fundamentalist version of Islam is more theocratic and Salafist in nature with banning all signs of modern society. The insurgents although does not have much power to take on Pakistan Military on direct confrontation. Due to this, they have resorted to terror tactics. The populacerecruitment support comes from the deprived classes of society. It is pertinent to note that religious students of Madarssahs are soft targets. These students mostly belonged to poor families and have very less exposure to modern schooling systems. The insurgents then exploit their weaknesses both financially and mentally. Brain washing turn these young adults into lethal weapons and in search of martyrdom they act like puppets on the hand of their mentors. To cut down the work force recruitment government need to act swiftly, banning such madarssahs is not the solution. Government must provide an alternative like either nationalizes all these religious institutions or provide an alternative.
The radical Islamist also enjoys a considerable political support from religious parties. With the awakening led by electronic media, these religious parties are parting their ways from fundamental elements. However, anti-American sentiments are still use as propaganda base. The parting of ways is clear by the recent suicide bomb blast in Peshawar. The bomber targeted a rally of Jamat-E-Islami, which was an outright supporter of the fundamental groups. Moreover, the recent assassination of Khalid Khawaja and abduction of Colonel Imam (Former Pro-Taliban intelligence official) may also indicate the parting of ways with previous friends.
United States has never been viewed as a trusted ally in Pakistan. The roots of distrust dates back to 1971 Indo-Pak war when the promised seventh fleet never reached its destination resulting into fall of Dhaka. The resentment grew further during post-Afghan war era when United States dumped once most favored ally in decade of 1990s. Recent drone attacks and violations of air space are adding further to these resentments. These all historic events are used a ploy by Islamist to attract populace support. Pakistanis have never endorsed the participation on United States led War on Terror. Until now, the populace was in dilemma on issue of War on Terror. However, the rise of terror tactics in preceding years and efforts by media has brought changes in public opinion. Now most of population is in support of in-land military operation to cut down the fundamentalists.
Af-Pak Battle ground of New Great Game
Taliban are alleged to be nurtured by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Keeping in view the strategic military interests of Pakistan, it can be presumed that with presence of hostile India on eastern side, an unsafe western border would complicate the problems for Pakistan. A pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan would ensure a safe western border. Therefore, the intent or motive for Taliban existed. The evolution of Taliban can also be credited to ISI and CIA with strategic interests. In present scenario, it is very interested to note that unlike TTP Mullah Omer never gave an order to engage or kill Pakistan Army. The drone attacks are also targeting a narrow area of focus with limited success. The porosity of border regions has never brought to control by either side. It is big question that why neither United StatesNATO nor Pakistan had made some credible efforts to seal the border to cut down the cross border insurgency. During recent operations by Pakistan Army in Swat, South Waziristan and Baluchistan, the recovered ammunition is either American made or Indian made. So is India also a player in this chaos Another question of prime importance is the whereabouts of Taliban leadership and Bin Laden. All these mind boggling questions makes the matter more complicated. With these entire questions, one thing appears in mind that there is something big behind the curtains. However, what it could be
It has to be bear in mind that Afghanistan and Pakistan both are at geo political strategic location.
Regional presence would ensure access to untapped energy reservoirs of Caspian, Central Asia and Baluchistan. It would also aid in for keeping a check on emerging China, India, Russia and rogue Iran. The religious militant elements can be use as an undercover weapon to destabilize Russia, Iran and China. Russia is facing insurgencies from Chechnya and Daghistan. As all these radical Islamists belong to Sunni sect of Islam, they can be use as a potent weapon to de-stabilize Shiite Iran. China is also facing threat of Islamic militancy within its borders, these elements can be used as base camps for all covert operations inside China. United States could be interested in these objectives to keep its dominance in the region. India has also interests in the region. Recent Indo-US nexus had presumably given India a license for regional domination. Keeping in view the historic facts of Indo-Sino rivalry, pitching India against the rising China might slow down the global emergence of Chinese power.
India has also supported the Northern Alliance during Afghan civil war. Moreover, India is also a sponsor of rebuilding Afghanistan. Presently a huge number of Indian consulates are operating inside Afghanistan. India has an archrival in the shape of Pakistan. Both countries have been involved in full-scale wars after independence and have accused each others covert involvement in insurgencies. Pakistan was a major supporter of Kashmir freedom fight and had allegedly helped the Sikh insurgency in 1980s. In return, India has allegedly masterminded many terrorist acts in Pakistan and is accused of supporting the Baluch and FATA insurgency. A pro-Indian government in Afghanistan would not be accepted to Pakistan. Similarly, a stabilized Pakistan would never allow India to acquire regional super power status and focus on China. These all factors constitute a complex web of interests in the region. Probably it can be termed as the New Great Game. Keeping in view this perspective, an end of this regional chaos seems remote. However, as history is evident United States has to finally pullout from Afghanistan. The exit must have some sort of face saving for the lone super power. Post United States Afghanistan would shape the future regional political dynamics and would have significant effect on world politics.
Conclusion
The case of Afghanistan and Pakistan differ from each other. The nature, causes and tactics of insurgency are different from each other. Afghan insurgents are in pursuit to throw away the foreign forces and an incapable regime. The struggle in Pakistan is towards implementation of theocratic way of life. Afghan insurgents enjoy populace support while their Pakistani counterparts are losing it fast. In Afghanistan, NATO and United States have limited success. Pakistani military has made substantial gains in troubled areas. For international community it is time to rethink their strategy in Afghanistan and get back to drawing board. Pakistan needs to consolidate on military gain. The future of regional peace and global peace hangs delicately on these decisions. Only time will tell that who passes the test. However, it is obvious that this war on terror is going to be there for times to come.
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